09/01/09 12:36 PM
Is There a Blogosphere in Europe?
I am in glamorous Kansas City at the moment, and am moving to England in a couple of weeks for two years of graduate school. This will mean less blogging in the near and medium terms. Hopefully it will mean smarter blogging in the long term. (I can hear Michael Goodfellow sharpening his knives in the comment section already: 'Perhaps now you will actually learn something about economics.' Perhaps.) But who knows.
I have enjoyed writing this blog immensely and will keep it up when I can. (The question in the headline is mostly serious: Are there good British blogs that I should be reading? Or books about British politics?) And I will miss the opportunity to argue with various people on a daily basis. But I very much like the idea of being a full-time graduate student, and I'm going to give that a whirl. I am pretty confident that the blogosphere will exist two years from now. I am less confident that I will have another opportunity to step off the treadmill for two years of government-subsidized procrastination. So I'm going to take the opportunity while it's here.
Thanks for reading.
08/31/09 2:33 PM
The Case Against Means Testing
Adam Schaeffer of the Cato Institute manages the fairly impressive feat of beating up on me in a blog post (I am an "ingrate," along with Matt Yglesias and Felix Salmon) without mentioning or responding to the argument I was actually making. So hey, let me just go ahead and make it again: The tax code's definition of a charity is too broad. Do you disagree, Adam?
Still, the separate question Schlaeffer asks is an interesting one: "Why shouldn't we charge rich parents tuition to attend public schools? If a charitable deduction for private schools is so bad, why isn't a free public education even worse?" So let me take a crack at it.
In general, means testing public services is a good idea, for obvious reasons. A concept of justice that said, "everyone gets the same amount, regardless of how much they need or deserve" would not be a very convincing concept indeed. But the case for means testing is often overstated and sometimes treated as gospel. And I can think of five reasons why it shouldn't be:
1. Means testing creates some inefficiencies. Deciding to make some government service contingent on one's demonstrated need requires creating some administrative mechanism for measuring need. This is costly and difficult. It is also (as I'm sure I don't need to tell the good people of Cato) potentially incentive-distorting: limiting a public service to people below a certain income should, at the margin, reduce the incentive to rise above that income.
2. Means testing can reduce the political support for a service. This isn't that complicated. If a service is provided to everyone in the United States, then everyone in the United States has some incentive to support it. If a service is provided to only the neediest individuals, then not everyone has an incentive to support it. (As an historical matter, my understanding is that this is one reason why social security benefits are not means tested.)
3. Means testing can reduce the quality of a service. This is related to #2. If not everyone in a given community benefits from a service, then the community will be less inclined to offer a robust form of that service. (And I think both #2 and #3 are exacerbated by the fact that the individuals most in need of public services tend to have the least political power.)
4. Means testing can create stigma, since it identifies some people as needy. (That might sound a bit hoity-toity, but I think it would be important in the context of a public education.)
5. Means testing can be immoral. Some benefits of citizenship are thought of as rights -- things to which we are entitled regardless of expected benefit or demonstrated need. No one, for instance, has recently suggested that voting should be means-tested.
08/29/09 12:00 PM
Can You Carry A Gun Near Barack Obama?
Megan McArdle, Jason Zengerle and Will Wilkinson have been having an argument about whether it's acceptable to carry guns to health-care protests and near the president of the United States. I don't want to try to summarize the whole debate, but I do want to comment on one aspect of it. Jason Zengerle takes the position that a gun-toting protester "makes the job of the Secret Service that much harder--and therefore increases the risk that the Secret Service won't be able to stop someone...who does want to try to assassinate the president." Will Wilkinson responds:
The silliest thing is Zengerle's casual assumption that if the free and peaceful exercise of an enumerated constitutional right "takes up resources," then the state may therefore limit it. I doubt he'd like to generalize this principle.
First, I'm not totally sure Zengerle's position is that the state "may therefore limit it." But even if it were, I doubt Will would like to generalize a principle dictating that the enumerated right always trumps state interests! This isn't complicated. Let's say we have a crowded theater. And let's say I exercise my seemingly enumerated First Amendment right and shout the word "Fire!" And let's say that several dozen people are grievously injured in the ensuing chaos. (Let's further assume that many of these people are recipients of generous, reliable Medicare benefits, so the state bears a cost.)
The fact that this situation is so preposterous is exactly why the law prevents it from happening: courts have created common-law doctrines like "fighting words" and "clear and present danger" for the obvious reason that the exercise of a right can have dire consequences, and some consequences are too costly to bear. Will might think that in this circumstance the cost is not prohibitively high, but there's nothing silly about a suggestion to the contrary.
A second point is worth making. The vast majority (all?) of our enumerated rights are negative: The say that the state can't stop you from engaging in a particular activity. But the fact that some activities are protected does not mean that these activities are worthy of special moral praise. The mere fact that you are carrying a gun or speaking freely or refusing to self incriminate at your trial (a la OJ Simpson) does not and should not insulate you from criticism. It's perfectly fair game to acknowledge that a certain activity is legally protected while also taking the position that lots of the people engaging in it are idiots.
08/28/09 2:19 PM
Why Rich Parents Raise Smarter Children
Over at the Economix blog, Catherine Rampell produces the following graph, which shows the relationship between SAT test score and family income:
Greg Mankiw calls this the "Least Surprising Correlation of All Time" and writes:Of course! But so what? This fact tells us nothing about the causal impact of income on test scores. [...] This graph is a good example of omitted variable bias, a statistical issue discussed in Chapter 2 of my favorite textbook. The key omitted variable here is parents' IQ. Smart parents make more money and pass those good genes on to their offspring. [...] It would be interesting to see the above graph reproduced for adopted children only. I bet that the curve would be a lot flatter.
And sure, it wouldn't be surprising to find a correlation between high IQ and high income. And it wouldn't be surprising to learn that "intelligence" is partially inheritable. But the vaguely deterministic suggestion that smart parents "make more money and pass those good genes on to their offspring" is a laughably crude description of how real life works.
I don't know of any large studies that test the relationship between test scores and socioeconomic status in adopted children. But the closest adoption study described in Richard Nisbett's Intelligence and How to Get It: Why Schools and Cultures Count (I'll put the full citation at the bottom) has this to say about IQ and socioeconomic status (SES):
The obvious point to make here is that children born to wealthy parents and raised by downscale families have almost exactly the same IQ range as children born to downscale parents and raised by wealthy families. Nisbett uses this to make what I thought would have been an entirely uncontroversial point -- namely, that "both genes and class-related environmental effects are powerful contributors to intelligence" And is it really hard to figure out why those "class-related environmental effects" should make a difference? Better schools, better nutrition, better health care, better test preparation and better neighborhoods all come to mind. I'm sure an intelligent guy like Greg Mankiw can figure that out.
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(John Sides reports on some other studies and makes some good points here. The chart above is drawn from Capron & Duyme, "Assessment of Effects of Socioeconomic Status on IQ in a Full Cross-Fostering Study" (1989).)
08/27/09 2:24 PM
Why Sarah Palin Should Not Defend Glenn Beck
Sarah Palin takes to the digital pages of Facebook in praise of embattled and boycotted TV host Glenn Beck:
FOX News' Glenn Beck is doing an extraordinary job this week walking America behind the scenes of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue and outlining who is actually running the White House.
Monday night he asked us to invite one friend to watch; tonight I invite all my friends to watch.
Palin thus ensures that the current Beck controversy will continue for at least another week. And I continue to be impressed and befuddled by two features of this controversy. The first is the degree to which Beck's supporters are largely unwilling to defend or engage with what Beck actually said to start the boycott. (Namely, that Obama is a "racist" with a "a deep-seated hatred for white people or the white culture.") The vast majority of what you hear from Beck supporters is that the left has been mendacious in handling the boycott campaign, by listing among the boycott signatories some companies that never advertised with Beck to begin with. But even if this were entirely true (it's partially true), it misses the point: The factual question of whether the boycott is calculating is unrelated to the interpretive question of whether what Beck said is defensible. And what Beck said was, I submit, stupid and indefensible. Does anyone disagree?
The second surprising feature is the degree to which this is wrongly described as a free-speech issue. This is a pretty big, basic misunderstanding of how free speech works. Free speech is a "negative" right: It prevents the government from silencing you. But it doesn't guarantee you the right to a soapbox or a megaphone or an audience. And it certainly doesn't guarantee a gigantic corporate paycheck for speaking your mind.
You might believe, as Charles Warner apparently does, that the Beck boycott is counterproductive because it gives Beck additional attention and notoriety -- which are Beck's bread and butter. Perhaps that's right. But this tactical debate -- what's the fastest way to have Beck wither on the vine? -- shouldn't be confused with a debate over whether losing an advertiser is like a chunk of the Bill of Rights. On that subject, there's really nothing to debate.
08/26/09 5:55 PM
Why Not Put Ted Kennedy's Name on the Health-Care Bill?
Why not? Lots of people are upset that Nancy Pelosi and Robert Byrd want to do this, but I'm not sure I buy their arguments. Ted Kennedy wanted to to pass a major health-care reform bill. He called it the cause of his life. It's not as if renaming the bill would be contrary to his wishes or in some sense ironic. (Like, perhaps, renaming a gigantic public airport after a man who fired thousands of air traffic controllers and favored limited government more broadly.)
The legislative eulogizing might (or might not!) make the bill more likely to pass, and the intentions of the legislators might (or might not!) be a mix of the genuinely commemorative ("he would have wanted it") and the disingenuously opportunistic ("we want it"). But there should be nothing surprising or unseemly about a legislator motivated by a heartfelt belief that the best way of honoring Kennedy would be to pass a bill for which the man struggled. And the political effects of a heartfelt Kennedy commemoration are no more or less "fair" than the political effects of a 9/11 commemoration or Ronald Reagan's death in the summer or 2004.
On the other hand, I do have some sympathy for Jonah Goldberg's argument that the left can't have this both ways: It shouldn't expect to mobilize Kennedy's memory for health-care reform while maumauing Kennedy's posthumous critics. But this is mostly because I don't think we should have a general principle against posthumous honesty. If Goldberg has a moral principle that discourages such criticism (and he seems to), he should surely uphold that principle and hold his tongue no matter what the left does.
08/26/09 2:53 PM
Do Private Schools Serve The Public Interest?
The one thing I would add is this: If you agree with the Yglesias/Salmon logic (as I do), there is no reason to halt that logic at the doors of the private schoolhouse. There is, for example, my favorite hobby horse: The tax deduction governing charitable contributions, which can be claimed for donations to a ludicrously broad variety of organizations. I've said this before, but the relevant portion of the tax code let's you claim it for donating to a...
corporation, trust, or community chest, fund, or foundation [...] organized and operated exclusively for religious, charitable, scientific, literary, or educational purposes, or to foster national or international amateur sports competition (but only if no part of its activities involve the provision of athletic facilities or equipment), or for the prevention of cruelty to children or animals.
Which, to understate matter, covers a lot of organizations -- international amateur sports leagues? -- of questionable public value. (Now if only there were some powerful elected official interested in changing the rules governing charitable deductions...)
Anyway, the big questions here are "what is the public interest?" and "who gets to define it?" -- and they are both fairly intractable questions. What can be said? I'm of the opinion that a narrower definition would be a better expression of the public interest than the law that is currently on the books, and I think most people, when confronted with the current law, would agree. Or at least I hope so.
(Photo: Flickr User woodleywonderworks)
08/26/09 10:11 AM
What The Heck Is Supply-Side Economics?
Last week I wrote a post that included the following taxonomy of "supply-side economics":
The "strong" version of the supply side argument is that tax cuts will generate enough growth to increase tax revenue. (Not to be confused with the general Laffer Curve proposition that tax cuts can do this, which will probably be true under some circumstances -- say, if a tax rate went from 100% to 99%.) The "semi-strong" version is that tax rates are the key factor governing economic growth. And the "weak" version is that the growth and efficiency generated by lower taxes is more important than the equality generated by redistribution. (The "weak" version pretty much just restates the big difference between the left and the right, so it's really quite general.)
I tried using this to make the point that, contra Greg Mankiw, "the general proposition that taxes affect incentives" is not unique to supply-side economics. Indeed, I wrote, "Everyone believes that!" Dan Mitchell of the Cato Institute wrote me a pretty long email disagreeing with this. I'll quote a snippet:
Read More
08/25/09 12:55 PM
Why Do Federal Workers Make So Much Money?
A friendly acquaintance from Cato sent me this article and asked what I think about it. First, I think I like pictures more than words, so let me summarize the article with this chart:
This is used to make the argument that "Federal wages should be frozen for a period of years, at least until the private-sector economy has recovered and average workers start seeing some wage gains of their own." Well, I think that's getting a bit ahead of the data. Here are a few quick thoughts on why:Read More
08/25/09 11:11 AM
Why Hasn't the Glenn Beck Boycott Hurt Fox News?
What I'm interested now is the economics of the boycott. Thirty-six companies have apparently signed on. And while it appears that some of them never advertised with Beck in the first place (oops), many if not most of them did. To which Fox responds:
While the advertising boycott has generated substantial media coverage, Fox News said it has not impacted the network's revenues or Beck's audience. "The advertisers referenced have all moved their spots from Beck to other programs on the network so there has been no revenue lost," a spokeswoman said.
I have had enough tangential experience with the wacky world of marketing and advertising to believe that what this Fox News spokeswoman says is true. But I still wonder: Why is it true? It's not clear that there should be "no revenue lost" in this situation. Let's assume that (1) the number total TV advertising spots is fixed and (2) the advertising budgets of the companies involved are fixed. (I believe both things are more-or-less true.) Let's further assume that (3) a boycott reduces the total number of available advertising spots.
So when the Beck Boycott hits, the same number of dollars is chasing a smaller number of advertising slots. This should ... raise the price of an advertising slot. And when that happens, I don't understand how the advertisers can simply move their spots "from Beck to other programs on the network" without increasing their advertising budgets. And if they don't increase their budgets, it would be more cost-effective for them to buy spots on (the now relatively cheaper) other networks.
But perhaps that assumes the market for advertising is efficient, and I've never met someone who believes that it is. Or am I missing something?
(Photo: Flickr User permanentlyscatterbrained)




