September 2009 Archives

09/30/09 9:45 AM

Culture / Media

Where the Kids Are Heading

3056953388_4512c89d0a.jpgThe Wall Street Journal asked six experts to come up with lists of the "next youth magnet cities." I was one of them. The top spot was a tie - D.C. and Seattle, followed by NYC, Portland (OR), Austin, San Jose, Denver, Raleigh-Durham, Dallas, Chicago, and Boston. You can see the list and read the full story here.

Below is what I sent to the Journal.

My Rankings
These are based on my own rankings of the best places for young, professional singles, aged 20-29 in Who's Your City?, as well as other rankings and surveys and my reading of current trends. The data are from Kevin Stolarick, additional analysis by Charlotta Mellander, and research assistance by Patrick Adler, my colleagues at the Martin Prosperity Institute.

1) New York City
The country's largest city was the top destination for recent graduates according to the career-cast survey noted below. The city's size affords migrants an economic diversity that simply cannot exist in smaller places. It's the place to be if you're in finance, fashion, entertainment, publishing, or even indie music. Also unparalleled is the city's mythic status, as a place to test one's mettle against the best and the brightest. One of the top five on my own rankings of the best places for young, single, 20-29-year-olds.

2) Washington, D.C
The public sector is ascendant and, in the eyes of many, Barack Obama is America's coolest boss. These factors will only bolster Washington, D.C., a city that is already a hotbed of young talent. 45.9 percent of Washington, D.C.'s workforce has a bachelor's degree or more, and young people enjoy positions of influence on congressional staffs and at think tanks. And it is a center for media, journalism, and blogging as well as high-tech. D.C. is the top city in my own rankings of best places for young singles aged 20-29. If I was 23 or 24 again, it's where I'd head.

3) San Francisco/ Silicon Valley
Still the world's high-tech hot spot. One of the top five on my own rankings. Great quality of life, a large stock of smart, driven young people, and fantastic restaurants and outdoor activities.

4) Chicago
If management or industry is your thing, Chicago is the place to be. It's the talent magnet for the midwest and beyond, drawing driven young people by the droves. It has great amenities, great nightlife, a spectacular waterfront, great restaurants, and it's affordable.

5) Boulder/ Denver
Yes, it's smaller than the others, but it packs a real punch. Boulder ranked No. 1 among all U.S. destinations on my own rankings of the best places for young singles 20-29. Now add in Denver and it has the size and scale to be a great place for young professionals. It has thriving, high-tech industries about the best outdoor recreation - from skiing to cycling - to be had anywhere.

6) L.A.
If you want a career in film, entertainment, fashion, or music, it's the place to be. Sure, it's crowded, pricey, and the traffic is horrible, but it has abundant sunshine, great temperatures, unbelievable beaches, and fantastic restaurants.

7) Boston
It's always been a great "stay-over" town for the thousands of regional college grads. This year, it surpassed NYC as the No. 1 destination for Harvard grads. It's the world center for management consulting with strong finance and high-tech industries. Not to mention a great place to stick around, work for awhile, and go back to grad school.

8) Seattle
A high-tech and lifestyle mecca in its own right with Amazon, Microsoft, and more. It's also a center for cutting-edge retail with Starbucks, Costco, and REI. Quality of place by the boatloads.

9) Austin
What can you say about a place whose motto is "Keep Austin Weird"? It remains a high-tech player, with great quality of life that's affordable. It's the indie music capital of the universe with SXSW and Austin City Limits and a great array of local venues. Plus, with residents like Lance Armstrong, it's a cyclist and outdoor enthusiast's paradise.

10) Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill
Another great high-tech, university, smart city, which boasts a mild climate, highly educated population, great outdoor activities, and a great music scene.

Runners-Up/Honorable Mention:

  • Madison, Wisconsin, and Ann Arbor, Michigan - Both great stay-over college towns that rank very high on my own rankings. College towns in general perform well in this demographic; they've coped reasonably well with the recession and are good places to stay or head, at least for a while
  • Atlanta and Minneapolis: Regional talent magnets for the southeast and Great Lakes/Plains respectively.
  • Outside the U.S.: London, Toronto, Shanghai, Sydney-Melbourne-Brisbane.
Key factors affecting location of young, college-educated singles
Even with signs that the worst of the Great Recession is over, young people are understandably worried about their economic future. This past May, the Wall Street Journal reported that some of the past decade's "youth magnet" locations are losing their appeal as economic opportunities whither in cities like Phoenix, Seattle, Atlanta, Charlotte, Dallas, Las Vegas, and others which led the nation in attracting young college grads from 2005 to 2007. So where are young, educated, single people heading?

A recent survey lists the best places for college grads to launch their careers. New York City topped the list - despite the financial crisis - with eight in 10 survey respondents listing it as one of their top destinations. Second-place Washington, D.C. was named by 63 percent. Los Angeles, Boston, San Francisco, Chicago, Denver, Seattle, and San Diego round out the top 10. And, remember, this is a list of the places that are best to find a job, not to have fun, go to great restaurants or clubs, make friends, or get lots of dates. 

The list is heavy on big cities, and it's remarkably similar to a comprehensive list my research team and I developed for my book Who's Your City? of the best places for college-educated 20- to 29-year-olds. It also put big cities such as San Francisco, Washington, Boston, Los Angeles, and New York on top. (D.C. jumped to the top of the list when we factored affordability and cost into the mix.) College towns also did well, with Madison, WI, topping the list for medium-size regions, and Boulder, CO, taking first place for small regions. Raleigh, N.C.; Ann Arbor, MI; and New Haven, CT also score well. To get at the factors that attract and keep Gen Y in certain places, my colleague Charlotta Mellander and I analyzed the results of a Gallup survey of some 28,000 Americans.

First off, young, educated people are considerably less attached to where they live and considerably more mobile than other Americans. About a quarter (26.5 percent) of them said they were extremely satisfied with the place they currently live, compared with nearly half (47.4 percent) of all Americans. Twenty-somethings are, on average, three or four times more likely to move than 40- or 50-somethings.

Jobs are clearly important. Gen Y members ranked the availability of jobs second when asked what would keep them in their current location and fourth in terms of their overall satisfaction with their community. But it's more than just a job. Young people today are faced with dwindling corporate commitment; job tenure has grown far shorter and people switch jobs with much greater frequency. That means picking a location which not only offers a great job but a thick labor market with abundant career opportunity, as a hedge against economic uncertainty and the risk of layoff.

But the highest-ranked factor is the ability to meet people and make friends. Young, educated people intuitively understand what economic sociologists have documented: Vibrant social networks are key to landing jobs, moving forward in your career, and one's broader personal happiness. They not only desire a thick labor market but what I have come to call a thick mating market where they can meet new people, go out on dates, and eventually find a life partner. What do you think is more important to happiness: Finding a great job or finding the right life partner?

Where older Americans see high-quality schools and safe streets as key, Gen Y understandably ranks the availability of outstanding colleges and universities higher. Many are likely to go back to graduate school and having great programs nearby is a big plus. When it comes to their overall community satisfaction, access to open space, being in an aesthetically beautiful city, and having access to vibrant nightlife are also quite important. Affordable housing, air, and water quality, and availability of religious institutions matter too but slightly less so.

My own assessment is that finding the right place to live is among the three most important decisions of your life. Moving is an expensive and time-consuming proposition; mistakes can be costly to fix or undo.

(Photo: Flickr/fergusonphotography)

09/28/09 10:00 AM

Business

Creativity in the Country

Creative jobs are not only a big factor in the success of urban areas, they help to power growth in rural areas too. New research by my colleagues at the Martin Prosperity Institute examines the role of creative jobs in the economic development of rural communities in Ontario.

In the decade 1996 to 2006, creative class jobs led job growth in rural Ontario at 22 percent, considerably ahead of working class jobs which grew at 13 percent and service class jobs which expanded by nine percent. Over the same period, agricultural and resource jobs fell by 20 percent.


 A summary of the research is here.

09/27/09 4:11 PM

Politics

Pittsburgh's Long Night

Quite a scene in Pittsburgh last night in the wake of the G-20 on Forbes Avenue, in front of the Carnegie Museum, a block or two away from the campuses of the University of Pittsburgh and Carnegie Mellon University. It's literally two blocks from my old Heinz School office, a block from my favorite coffee shop, and three blocks from where I lived.

Picture by Radder Photos, flickr

Here are some eyewitness reports from the Post-Gazette.

Drew Singer, editor of the student newspaper The Pitt News, watched the events from a window in the William Pitt Union, which has a view of Schenley Plaza. Two Pitt News photographers were among those arrested. "There were way more police than there were civilians, nonpolice," he said. He said the police gave a loud order to disperse. He said police usually arrest people who are especially unruly, but Friday night, "it seemed like anybody who didn't leave immediately was being arrested even if they were just kind of watching. Technically, they did not disperse." He said some Pitt News reporters saw people passing out note cards earlier in the day at the permitted "People's March to the G-20," which announced a rally that night in Schenley Plaza. While there may have been protesters, he said, "I personally didn't see a single protester. There was absolutely nothing like Thursday night. It was overwhelmingly spectators and people who just wanted to see what was going on. It seems like just after Thursday night, [police] just weren't taking anything. They just weren't up for any funny business. They gave the orders to disperse, and I guess anybody who didn't immediately disperse they were going after, it seemed like."

"It was all students and no protesters -- it looked like any Friday night in Oakland but with more people," said Nathan Lanzendorfer, 23, of Mt. Lebanon. He went to Oakland out of curiosity to see the protests. Shortly before midnight he was caught on Forbes Avenue, with police deploying OC gas from two directions. He was hit with a rubber bullet in his right leg and his left, started to run, and was then hit in an arm and his lower back. "I never heard any warning to leave the area -- all four [rubber bullet] shots were within five seconds," he said. "All the wounds on my back. If I was opposing [the police] at all you'd think I'd have a front wound." Mr. Lanzendorfer went to UPMC Presbyterian for treatment of his contusions, one of which is softball-sized, he said.

Post-Gazette reporter Sadie Gurman, 24, was among those arrested on the Pitt Cathedral of Learning lawn."I was arrested on the cathedral lawn while truly trying to get out of the fray," she said. Ms. Gurman said she had gone to Schenley Plaza because of news alerts she received on her cell phone. At Schenley Plaza, she was talking with colleagues and others she had met while covering G-20 events. In the plaza, she said there was one person on a loudspeaker. Others were standing around talking, running or playing games, such as duck-duck-goose. She estimated the number of civilians in the plaza at about 200.

Much of the plaza was flanked by police officers. "There was definitely an energy that was very ominous at that point," she said. Even as police ordered the crowd to disperse, Ms. Gurman said some people in the plaza stayed and chanted, "You're sexy, you're cute, take off your riot suit." Ms. Gurman said she left the plaza and went onto Forbes Avenue."I was trying to move in a way that would not be in their perimeter. I was walking on Forbes toward Craig Street to get out of it. Another police van pulled up. Additional officers in riot gear jumped out and said to 'move back, move back' and were pushing us the opposite direction back toward Bigelow." She went that direction and ended up having to jump over bushes on the Cathedral lawn to get out of the way of police. "I thought I was OK there. The cops jumped over the bushes, too," she said. She said a helicopter was overhead. With the cathedral behind a group of people, the police made a half circle and ordered people to lie down on the ground. "Some of the girls were hugging each other and crying, saying to the police, 'Tell us how we can get out of here peacefully. We don't want to be here, but you've trapped us.' "She estimated about 30 people were put into a police vehicle. She was released about 10 hours after her arrest.

Ellyanna Kessler, an 18-year-old freshman, said she had been watching from her dormitory in Forbes Hall when police shot OC gas canisters onto the balcony of the residence. "Everybody got tear gassed," she said.

Tracy Hickey, an 18-year-old freshman, said she had been arrested while watching the protest as an off-duty ACLU legal observer. When she realized that many of those being ordered to disperse had "nowhere to disperse to," she saidheld open the door to a dormitory, ushering a crowd of screaming students into the residence. She said police then arrested her ... By about 10:50 p.m., K-9 units and police with plastic shields had surrounded the plaza began to make arrests. Police fired OC gas canisters into a crowd of mostly students on the corner of Forbes and Bigelow. Many people ran down Forbes Avenue, coughing and screaming, as a line of police several officers deep stretched across the road and marched down the street, ordering the crowd to disperse. Some protesters taunted the police, he said. "How do you feel shooting students," one yelled.

Peter Shell, co-chair of the Thomas Merton Center's antiwar committee, said he had gone to Oakland Friday night to celebrate the day's successful and peaceful People's March to the G-20, which his organization had sponsored. When police made Mr. Shell leave Schenley Plaza, he was forced onto the Cathedral of Learning lawn. When he tried to leave via Fifth Avenue, he was surrounded, trapped and arrested, he said. "We tried going left, we tried going forward, we tried going right," he said. "We wanted to disperse and they did not let us disperse."

Molly Shea said she came to Pittsburgh to protest at the People's March but wanted nothing to do with Friday night's demonstration, she said. A 22-year-old senior at Ohio University, she was studying at Kiva Han coffee shop until about 10:45 p.m. Friday, when she left to look for her friends. She walked to the lawn next to the Cathedral of Learning to find them and soon realized she was surrounded by police, she said."We kept asking them how we could leave, or if we could leave," she said. "Most of them were unresponsive. Some of them just said no."She was on a police wagon and then a bus for about five hours without water or a bathroom break, though many girls with her were asking for both, she said."A few police officers were nice," she said, "but for the most part, they were not."She said one of the officers was "taking a lot of pride" in taking mug shots next to female detainees, and that other officers frequently used profanities specifically derogatory to women."Some of them were making jokes when they were moving around from paddy wagon to paddy wagon about 'getting the hot ones out,'" she said.She was released Saturday morning after being detained for about 10 hours, she said.

A 24-year-old member of Iraq Veterans Against the War, Army Sgt. Jeff Bartos had been deployed to Iraq as a medic in 2005. When he came to Pittsburgh this week from New Britain, Conn. to protest the G-20 summit, it was also as a medic.Friday night, he was helping to treat a reporter who had been exposed to OC gas near Schenley Plaza when he realized he was surrounded by police on all sides. He said he was corralled with about 40 "pretty nervous, 'What-are-we-doing-here' protesters" as well as "random college kids," including a girl who had been jogging through the park when she was trapped. He said he was charged with disorderly conduct and released about 6 p.m. Saturday.

Jordan Romanus, 22, who lives in South Oakland, a 15-minute walk from campus, was among those arrested Friday night on the Cathedral lawn. He said they were told to lie face down on the ground. "I feel pretty horrible. I think 99 percent of the people that were arrested had never been arrested before. The anarchists who did all the damage, none of them were there ... It was absolutely atrocious." Mr. Romanus, who said he was released around 12:30 p.m. yesterday, said police kept the detainees handcuffed all night. "My wrists are really sore. I didn't get any sleep. They made us sit in chairs. They [the handcuffs] were on really right. One kid's hand was bleeding by the end."

A former student of mine said in an e-mail:

"The police went totally haywire last night.  this article only gives a partial account.  they were bashing people, pretty much indiscriminately.  Nothing to do with protests, or vandalism, or anarchists.  Just people going to get Primanti's (a Pittsburgh institution famous for its sandwiches piled high with french fires and coleslaw) its , and then they get teargassed, or billy-clubbed, or arrested."

Update: Here is a video clip from in front of the University of Pittsburgh.

[Picture by Radder Photos, flickr]

09/24/09 10:43 AM

Science / Technology

ComplexCity - How Cities are like the Human Brain

Jane Jacobs long ago showed us that cities are complex adaptive systems. Now new research by cognitive scientists at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute finds that not only are cities organized along the same complex principles as the human brain, but evolve in ways that mirror the brain's evolution.

"Natural selection has passively guided the evolution of mammalian brains throughout time, just as politicians and entrepreneurs have indirectly shaped the organization of cities large and small," said Mark Changizi, a neurobiology expert and assistant professor in the Department of Cognitive Science at Rensselaer, who led the study. "It seems both of these invisible hands have arrived at a similar conclusion: brains and cities, as they grow larger, have to be similarly densely interconnected to function optimally." ... "When scaling up in size and function, both cities and brains seem to follow similar empirical laws," Changizi said. "They have to efficiently maintain a fixed level of connectedness, independent of the physical size of the brain or city, in order to work properly."

Science Daily provides a fuller summary (via Planetizen). The full paper can be downloaded from Changizi's website.

09/23/09 11:05 AM

Culture / Media

What Your Playlist Says About You

What does the music you listen to say about your personality, and what determines the kinds of music we like? Watch this video by path-breaking Cambridge University psychologist Jason Rentfrow and find out.

09/21/09 10:45 AM

Science / Technology

Where High Speed Rail Makes the Most Sense

The ongoing debate over high-speed rail generates heated passions on all sides. Those opposed see high-speed rail as too costly and the U.S. as lacking the density to make the numbers work. Those in favor argue that high-speed rail is a way to move the U.S. to smarter, more energy-efficient transportation alternatives. My own take is that high-speed rail offers a mechanism to both expand and intensify the use of urban space leading to what geographers call a new "spatial fix" - required, I would add, to spur long-run economic recovery.

Here's some useful analysis by America 2050 which can help advance the dialogue. Its new  report uses six factors - population, economic output, distance between cities, quality of local transit networks, highway congestion, and mega-region designation - to rank the top 50 routes across the U.S. (via Planetizen and Infrastructurist).

high speed rail routes.gif

09/18/09 4:07 PM

Culture / Media

Pump My Ride

3923888221_6ef7f4967a.jpgThe latest in truly alternative transport, this human-powered party machine is a converted cargo bike built by Portland, OR bike-maker Metrofiets for Hopworks Urban Brewing (h/t Joe Cortright). BikePortland provides full technical details.
 

The bike follows the basic Metrofiets design of a long body, with a cargo carried in the front. The cargo container is a metal keg bucket which holds two full sized kegs and 25 pounds of ice. Beer from the kegs run through a 50 foot cooling coil and then to your glass via two taps (made by Shimano and Chris King) which protrude from a wooden bar inlaid with HUB's trademark lightning bolt. Tap handles by Shimano
and Chris King

A large, square rear rack is designed to fit a stack of pizza boxes. Below the rack is a sound system "pannier" with another lightning bolt inlaid wood panel casing and a speaker. The bike sports HUB's colors, matte orange and black.

This party is entirely human-powered, with the help of nine gears -- any more would allow a rider to go faster than would be entirely wise, explained Ross. Sturdy looking disc brakes and chunky tires with full fenders adorn both wheels.

When fully loaded with pizza, beer, and ice, the bike should just about meet Metrofiets' 400lb weight limit.

(Photo: Elly Blue/BikePortland)

09/17/09 10:00 AM

Business

Unemployment and the Creative Class

The U.S. unemployment rate is 9.7 percent, the highest in some time, but the burden of unemployment is  spread unevenly across the economy. Production workers face a 15.1 percent unemployment rate, while unemployment among construction and extraction workers stands at 17 percent. But unemployment among management and professional workers is only 5.4 percent. Researchers at the Martin Prosperity Institute (MPI) previously identified long-run differences in the unemployment rates faced by industrial workers and knowledge, professional, and creative workers.

New analysis by the MPI team tracks unemployment among management and professional - or creative class - workers from 1983 to the present. While unemployment among creative class workers as a whole is far below the rate faced by production and construction workers, there is considerable variation in unemployment among the various occupations, professions, and job types that make up the creative class.

Creative workers in arts, design, and entertainment occupations consistently face higher unemployment rates and significant spikes during recessions. In contrast to other creative fields, the unemployment rate for arts, design, and entertainment workers sometimes runs higher than the overall unemployment rate.

Computer, sciences, and engineering professionals experience lower rates of unemployment than arts, design, and entertainment workers. But the lowest rates of unemployment and the most stable employment are found in meds and eds occupations - health and education - where unemployment stays consistently low, even during downturns.

The full analysis is here.

09/15/09 10:00 AM

Business

The Income Map

The big story last week was the census report on the fall-off in Americans' incomes. The New York Times' David Leonhardt called it a "lost decade" with 2008 median household income of $50,303 falling beneath the 1998 figure of $51,295. While the national pattern is troubling, the trend in U.S. income varies widely by state.

Kevin Stolarick, research director of the Martin Prosperity Institute, compiled state-by-state statistics comparing incomes in 2007-2008 and 2005-2006.

The first map below shows the change in income for the 50 states. There were some big losers - New Jersey (-$7,214), Vermont -($5,757), Georgia (-$3,304), Delaware (-$2,558), Minnesota (-$2303), Tennessee (-$2218), Arizona (-$1,891)and Florida (-$1,890).

But there were also some big income gainers - Colorado ($4,658), North Dakota ($4,412), Oklahoma ($3,998), Alaska ($3,756), New Hampshire ($3,663), DC ($3,467), and Alabama ($3,405).

The second map shows the percent change in income by state.

Once again we see the patterns of winners and losers. Unlike in the nation as a whole, incomes actually increased in 29 of 50 states. Eight states saw income gains of more then five percent - Oklahoma (9.6 percent), North Dakota (9.2 percent), Alabama (8.4 percent), Colorado (8.1 percent), D.C. (6.8 percent), Alaska (6.2 percent), New Hampshire (5.7 percent), and Oregon (5.0 percent).

On the other hand, two states saw income losses of 10 percent or more - Vermont (-10.3 percent) and New Jersey (-10.1 percent); and incomes declined by more than five percent in two others - Georgia (-6.4 percent) and Tennessee (- 5.1 percent).

09/12/09 11:45 AM

Business

Widening College Cost to Earnings Gap

Business Week economist Michael Mandel has produced a terrific chart comparing college costs to the earnings of young college graduates (25- to 34-year-olds) from 1991 to 2008 (below).

While the lines track one another for most of the 1990s, they began to diverge by the late 1990s, and the gap has grown considerably over the past decade. Mandel finds that college costs in real terms are up by 23 percent since 2000, while real pay for young college grads has fallen by 11 percent.

Money quote:  "This can't go on. It's just not possible."

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